Kafkas Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi 2019 , Vol 25 , Issue 4
Determining the Change in Retail Prices of Veal in Turkey by GARCH Method Between 2014-2017
Mehmet Saltuk ARIKAN1, Mustafa Bahadır ÇEVRİMLİ2, Ahmet Cumhur AKIN3, Mustafa Agah TEKİNDAL4
1Department of Animal Health Economics and Management, Fırat University Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, TR-23119 Elazıg - TURKEY
2Department of Animal Economics and Management, Selcuk University Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, TR-42003 Konya - TURKEY
3Department of Animal Health Economics and Management, Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, TR-15030 Burdur - TURKEY
4Department of Biostatistic, Selcuk University Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, TR-42003 Konya - TURKEY
DOI : 10.9775/kvfd.2018.21187 In Turkey, the demand for veal in the red meat market is steadily increasing. In the formation of this demand and price; additional factors such as consumer preferences, government interventions in the red meat market, import decisions, also the implemented policies and subsidies are effective besides the main factors. However, the fact that such practices do not affect the veal prices in the market makes it impossible to ensure price stability and a sustainable market. The analysis of the change in retail prices is important for both producers and consumers so that the validity of this view can be tested. The aim of this study was to analyze the retail prices of minced meat and the veal cubes from the first week of January 2014 to the last week of December 2017 via using the volatility estimation modeling method in the context of the effectiveness of the policies and market interventions applied in the red meat sector implemented in Turkey. Non-stationary series were made stationary by differencing. By developing a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH 1,1) model using the series subject to a unit root test, it was found to be the optimal model that best explains the fluctuation of the prices. The results of the estimation show that the retail prices of veal cubes and minced meats fluctuated conspicuously in the said period and that the implemented policies and the market interventions were not adequate to eliminate the instability and uncertainty of the prices. Keywords : GARCH, Price volatility, Time series, Turkey, Vealk